CH12 - THE 2016 RACE FOR THE US PRESIDENCY
Publié le 07/05/2023
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« CH12 - THE 2016 RACE FOR THE US PRESIDENCY US presidential election = never-ending process: Every four years but it is preceded by years of fundraising and careful planning (seeking political party’s nomination, party primaries/caucuses, “Super Tuesday”, national convention party, campaign across the country, debates...) 2016: Democrats (Hillary Clinton vs Bernie Sanders) & Republicans (Ted Cruz vs Marco Rubio vs Donald Trump) Polling day: American citizens vote but does not determine who the winner (done by the Electoral College with “the-winner-takes-itall” principle) Whoever wins 270 out of the 578 votes becomes president (2016: Donald Trump lost the popular vote but obtained more Electoral College votes) The 2016 Race for Presidency: An Unprecedented Campaign 2016 Presidency = unprecedented (opinion polls: Hillary Clinton & Donald Trump = most unpopular candidates in modern history) Hillary Clinton because of the e-mail scandal (used private e-mail server to send classified information) & the Clinton Foundation scrutiny. Donald Trump because of his disparaging remarks (// ethnic minorities, women, foreign political leaders...) & the 2005 leaked video (women harassment) Analyzing Donald Trump’s Victory The polling error Who supported candidate Trump? Outcome of 2016 Presidency = surprise to many commentators BECAUSE he's business mogul, he has no prior political experience and on account of national polls (forecast a Clinton win) Pollsters/political data analysts tried to understand what happened: - Late deciders played a crucial role: narrowly contested election, great deal of floating voters.... »
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